制度创新影响中国-东盟经贸关系演进的研究

邓祥征¹，刘雨晴¹，刘禹含²

(1. 北京工商大学 经济学院，北京 100048；

2. 中国地质大学(北京) 自然文化研究院，北京 100083)

摘要：在全球经济格局重构、供应链体系重组与区域合作持续深化的背景下，制度创新成为推动中国-东盟经贸关系由竞争走向融合的关键力量。本文以《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）的制度效应为切入点，构建“竞争-制度-融合”分析框架，以解释中国-东盟经贸关系的演进逻辑。本文基于2010—2023年中国与东盟十国贸易的面板数据，考察了RCEP对双边经贸融合的影响。研究结果表明，RCEP的制度创新提升了中国-东盟经贸融合水平，表明制度创新是推动双方由市场驱动型合作迈向规则驱动型融合的重要动力。RCEP通过降低制度壁垒、协调贸易规则并增强政策可预期性，提升了跨境要素流动效率，促进了更高水平的区域经济协调。机制分析结果表明，产业互补度在这一过程中发挥了部分机制作用，推动经贸关系由竞争合作并存向结构性协同演进。制度创新提高了中国与东盟经济体之间的产业结构匹配度，促进了纵向专业化与功能性分工，并通过增强结构契合度进一步深化了区域融合。同时，外商直接投资通过规则协同、资本联通与供应链协同，放大了制度创新的融合效应，进而形成规则协调、资本联通与结构融合相互强化的作用机制。稳健性检验进一步验证了上述结论的稳定性。本文从“竞争-制度-融合”的分析视角，为理解中国-东盟经贸融合的制度逻辑提供了实证依据，也为完善RCEP框架下的制度治理与合作路径提供了政策参考。

基金项目：国家自然科学基金应急管理项目“中国-东盟经贸合作高质量发展的影响因素与路径”(72441001)

关键词：中国-东盟；RCEP；制度创新；产业互补；外商直接投资；经贸融合

作者简介：邓祥征，北京工商大学经济学院教授、博士生导师；刘雨晴，北京工商大学经济学院博士研究生；刘禹含，中国地质大学（北京）自然文化研究院助理教授，通信作者。

引用格式：邓祥征,刘雨晴,刘禹含.制度创新影响中国-东盟经贸关系演进的研究[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2026,28(3):28-40.

Evolution and Institutional Innovation of China-ASEAN Economic and Trade Relations

DENG Xiangzheng¹, LIU Yuqing¹, LIU Yuhan²

(1. Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048;

2. China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083)

Abstract: China-ASEAN economic and trade relations are transforming from competition-oriented interaction toward institutionally embedded integration. Existing studies have focused on trade scale expansion, structural complementarity, or the static effects of regional cooperation, while insufficient attention has been paid to the internal mechanism through which institutional innovation influences competitive relations and promotes regional integration. To address this gap, this study uses the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as a representative institutional innovation and constructs an analytical framework of “competition, institution, and integration” to explain the evolutionary logic of China-ASEAN economic and trade relations.

Using panel data for China and the ten ASEAN members from 2010 to 2023, this study empirically examines the impact of RCEP on bilateral economic and trade integration and further investigates the transmission mechanism and conditional effects. An economic and trade integration index is constructed to capture the multidimensional nature of regional integration, incorporating trade in goods, trade in services, intra-industry trade, and digitally delivered service exports. Based on this index, the paper uses fixed-effects models, mediation-effect models, and interaction-effect models to test three propositions: whether institutional innovation significantly promotes China-ASEAN integration, whether industrial complementarity serves as a mediating mechanism, and whether foreign direct investment (FDI) strengthens the institutional effect of RCEP.

The empirical results show that RCEP has a significantly positive effect on the China-ASEAN economic and trade integration, suggesting that institutional innovation has become a major driving force in the transition from market-based cooperation to rule-based integration. By reducing institutional barriers, harmonizing trade rules, and improving policy predictability, RCEP enhances cross-border factor mobility and promotes higher regional economic coordination. Further analysis demonstrates that industrial complementarity plays a partial mediating role in this process. Institutional innovation improves the alignment of industrial structures between China and ASEAN economies, facilitates vertical specialization and functional division of labor, and thereby deepens regional integration through enhanced structural matching. Additionally, capital flows amplify the integration effect of institutional innovation. Robustness tests excluding the pandemic years confirm the stability of these findings.

This study contributes to literature in three aspects. Theoretically, it integrates co-opetition theory with regional integration theory and proposes a dynamic framework for understanding how institutional innovation transforms competitive coexistence into stable integration. Empirically, it provides evidence on the mediating role of industrial complementarity and the moderating role of FDI in the China-ASEAN context. Practically, it offers policy implications for deepening rule coordination, strengthening industrial complementarities, and promoting investment cooperation under the RCEP framework.

Keywords: China-ASEAN; RCEP; institutional innovation; industrial complementarity; FDI; economic and trade integration

下载全文