数字金融发展能够提升城市经济韧性吗？

王璇¹，葛新权²

（1. 中国社会科学院大学经济学院，北京 102488；2. 北京信息科技大学商学院，北京 100192）

摘要：数字化浪潮席卷全球的时代，数字金融作为数字经济的核心组成部分，正成为增强城市经济韧性的关键驱动力。基于2011—2021年全国222个地级及以上城市的面板数据，运用算法优化反事实估计的方法，对城市经济韧性指标进行测度。采取双向固定效应模型与可解释机器学习相结合的实证方法，探究数字金融发展对城市经济韧性的影响及其作用机制。基准回归结果显示，数字金融发展能够提升城市经济韧性。异质性分析表明，数字化程度较高的城市受到的效应具有明显的波动性；东部、中部、西部地区处于数字金融发展的三个梯度阶段，中部地区城市经济韧性受到的正向影响程度高于东部和西部地区。进一步分析显示，数字金融发展与城市经济韧性存在非线性关系，当城市数字普惠金融指数超过200~220区间时，二者之间的影响系数将由负转正。机制分析表明，数字金融发展通过调整产业集聚、赋能人力资本和优化经济结构等传导机制，有效应对了冲击造成的影响，且在冲击前后的不同阶段发挥着“调节器”的作用，增强了城市经济系统的韧性。未来更应对城市类型采取差异化发展策略，动态调整适配政策并推动数字金融高质量发展。

基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目“多源数据融合下数字金融风险监测与防范机制研究”（23BGL091）；中国社会科学院大学研究生“科研创新支持计划”项目“数字金融发展对区域经济韧性的影响研究”（2025-KYY-082）；中国社会科学院大学二十大重大专项课题“实体经济与虚拟经济背离中的‘脱实向虚’现象及其治理研究”（校20230013）

关键词：数字金融；城市经济韧性；产业集聚；人力资本；经济结构

作者简介：王璇，中国社会科学院大学经济学院博士研究生，通信作者；葛新权，北京信息科技大学商学院教授、博士生导师。

引用格式：王璇,葛新权.数字金融发展能够提升城市经济韧性吗?[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2026,28(2):51-68.

Can Digital Finance Development Enhance Urban Economic Resilience?

WANG Xuan¹, GE Xinquan²

(1. University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 102488;

2. Beijing Information Science & Technology University, Beijing 100192)

Abstract: Amid the current wave of digitalization sweeping the globe, digital finance has become a key driver for enhancing urban economic resilience. Based on panel data from 222 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2011 to 2021, this paper employs an algorithm-optimized counterfactual model to measure urban economic resilience. By integrating a two-way fixed effects model with interpretable machine learning methods, this paper empirically investigates the impact of digital finance development on urban economic resilience and its underlying mechanisms. This paper finds that digital finance development significantly improves urban economic resilience, which remains robust after a series of endogeneity tests and robustness checks.

Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the positive effects are more pronounced in cities with higher levels of digitalization, exhibiting significant volatility characteristics. The eastern, central, and western regions of China are at mature, advanced, and initial stages of digital finance development, respectively. The central region exhibits a stronger positive impact on urban economic resilience compared to the eastern and western regions. Further analysis suggests a potential nonlinear relationship between digital finance development and urban economic resilience. Specifically, when a city's Digital Inclusive Finance index exceeds the threshold range of 200~220, the impact coefficient shifts from negative to positive.

Mechanism analysis demonstrates that digital finance development enhances urban economic resilience through several transmission mechanisms, including the adjustment of industrial agglomeration, the empowerment of human capital, and the optimization of economic structures. These mechanisms effectively mitigate the effects of uncertainty shocks, acting as a "regulator" at different stages before and after such shocks. During crisis periods, digital finance assists economic systems in contracting and defending against shocks, while in the recovery phase, it provides support for expansion and growth. By responding to the essential needs of the economic system at various stages, digital finance ultimately strengthens urban economic resilience.

Differentiated development strategies should be adopted based on the urban economic structure and the specific stage of digital finance development. Policymakers must dynamically adjust support policies to accommodate the evolving landscape of digital finance, ensuring that policy interventions remain effective and targeted across different phases of urban development. Promoting high-quality development in the digital finance sector is essential for sustaining its positive effects on urban economies, including strengthening digital infrastructure, improving financial regulatory capacity, and actively fostering fintech innovation. Through these coordinated measures, cities can more effectively harness the full potential of digital finance to navigate global economic uncertainty and achieve long-term stability.

Keywords: digital finance; urban economic resilience; industrial agglomeration; human capital; economic structures

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