贸易协定深化对区域价值链分工优化的影响

——基于东亚地区的实证研究

董书慧^1,2，赵倩茹²，胡昭玲²

（1. 海口经济学院 东方外贸外语学院，海南 海口 571132；

2. 南开大学 经济学院，天津 300071）

摘要：在全球经济动荡、区域生产分工重构的时代背景下，探究贸易协定深化对区域价值链分工优化的影响具有重要的现实意义。本文将区域价值链分工优化分解为紧密度与复杂度两个维度，利用世界银行深度贸易协定数据库和亚洲开发银行投入产出数据库，构建指标测度2007—2021年13个东亚经济体35个行业的贸易协定深度和区域价值链分工优化程度，并对二者的关系进行实证检验。研究结果表明，贸易协定深化能够促进区域价值链分工紧密度和复杂度的提升，并主要通过降低贸易成本、推动技术创新、提升制度质量和促进投资四条渠道来实现。异质性分析表明，贸易协定深化对区域价值链分工趋势提升相对较慢的经济体、区域价值链分工水平较低的技术密集型行业和竞争力较弱行业的分工优化作用更为明显，WTO-X条款深度对分工优化的影响大于WTO+条款深度。本文研究结论为东亚经济体完善贸易协定条款设计、推进更深层次的制度型经济合作、构建协同共生的地区生产分工体系提供政策参考。

基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中美日韩对我周边国家（地区）投资的影响力比较研究”（25&ZD135）；南开大学亚洲研究中心项目“RCEP对亚太区域价值链重塑的影响与对策”（AS2321）

关键词：贸易协定深化；区域价值链；生产分工优化；东亚;技术创新；制度质量

作者简介：董书慧，海口经济学院东方外贸外语学院/南开大学经济学院教授；赵倩茹，南开大学经济学院硕士研究生；胡昭玲，南开大学经济学院教授、博士生导师，通信作者。

引用格式：董书慧,赵倩茹,胡昭玲.贸易协定深化对区域价值链分工优化的影响——基于东亚地区的实证研究[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2026,28(3):41-57.

The Impact of Trade Agreement Deepening on Regional Value Chain

Optimization: Empirical Evidence from East Asia

DONG Shuhui^1,2, ZHAO Qianru², HU Zhaoling²

（1. Haikou University of Economics, Haikou 571132;

2. Nankai University, Tianjin 300071）

Abstract: Against the backdrop of global economic volatility and the restructuring of the regional production division of labor, exploring the impact of trade agreement deepening on regional division patterns is of great practical significance. This paper decomposes the optimization of the regional value chain (RVC) division into two dimensions: compactness and complexity. Utilizing data from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, this paper constructs indicators to measure the depth of trade agreements and the level of RVC division optimization among East Asian economies. Based on panel data covering 35 industries across 13 East Asian economies from 2007 to 2021, this paper conducts an empirical test on the relation between trade agreement deepening and RVC division optimization. The results show that trade agreement deepening significantly improves both compactness and complexity of the RVC division. To alleviate endogeneity biases, the instrumental variable method is adopted. Furthermore, robustness checks are conducted, including replacing the explained and core explanatory variables and adjusting the sample interval.

Mechanism analysis indicates that the optimization effect of trade agreement deepening on RVC division mainly operates through four channels. First, it reduces trade costs, strengthens input-output linkages, and facilitates the nested layout of diverse production segments across economies. Second, it stimulates technological innovation, enhances specialized division and collaboration among economic entities, and promotes the upgrading of RVC structures. Third, it improves institutional quality and strengthens contract enforcement and factor mobility efficiency, thereby consolidating the sustainability of division cooperation and realizing a more refined distribution of production links within the region. Fourth, it stimulates cross-border investment and optimizes firms' internal organizational arrangements and multi-stage task allocation, thereby increasing the compactness of regional division and driving the evolution of RVC division toward more complex patterns.

Heterogeneity tests yield differentiated findings. In terms of cross-economy disparities in regional division trends, trade agreement deepening generates a more pronounced optimization effect on economies with slow progress in regional division integration. In terms of industrial heterogeneity regarding factor intensity and competitiveness, trade agreement deepening plays a stronger role in optimizing division patterns for technology-intensive industries and less competitive industries with insufficient regional division foundations, presenting a notable embedded gain effect that simultaneously enhances their division compactness and complexity. In terms of provision heterogeneity, the depth of WTO-X provisions contributes more to RVC division optimization than that of WTO+ provisions, and such inter-provision differences are consistently supported in technology-intensive and less competitive industries.

The findings of this paper provide policy implications for strengthening regional economic cooperation and promoting the optimization of regional production division through the deepening of trade agreements.

Keywords: trade agreement deepening; reaginal value chain (RVC); optimization of production division; East Asia; technology innovation; institution quality

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