数字技术如何赋能服务业转型升级？

——基于技术扩散与服务业集聚视角

张亚萍，刘军

（山西财经大学 国际贸易学院，山西 太原 030006）

摘要：服务业作为中国现代产业体系的重要组成部分,对中国经济结构调整和产业升级具有战略意义。 以2013—2022年286个城市为研究样本，基于“创造性毁灭”理论，构建包含数字技术的多部门熊彼特内生增长模型，分析数字技术影响服务业转型升级的效应及其机制。研究发现，数字技术可以促进服务业转型升级；数字技术可以通过提升技术扩散效应和服务业集聚效应，进而推动服务业转型升级。异质性分析结果表明，在高数字创新要素、高基础设施和高金融发展水平的区域，数字技术存在促进作用。进一步采用动态空间杜宾模型研究发现，数字技术与服务业转型升级均存在空间集聚性，且数字技术会对邻近地区产生空间溢出效应；另外，服务业转型升级具有时空上的惯性效应和扩散效应。研究的政策启示在于，各地区在加快数字技术发展和实施更加积极的外部环境的同时，应当注重强化数字技术的技术扩散效应和服务业集聚效应，充分利用数字技术的空间溢出效应，促进服务业转型升级。

关键词：数字技术；服务业转型升级；技术扩散；服务业集聚；空间集聚

作者简介：张亚萍（1996—），女，山西财经大学国际贸易学院博士研究生，通信作者；刘军（1984—），男，山西财经大学国际贸易学院教授、博士生导师。

基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目“数字化驱动服务业全要素生产率提升的机制及路径研究”（24BJL076）

引用格式：张亚萍,刘军.数字技术如何赋能服务业转型升级?——基于技术扩散与服务业集聚视角[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2025,27(4):33-48.

How Does Digital Technology Enable the Transformation and Upgrading of the Service Industry?

—Based on Technology Diffusion and Service Industry Agglomeration

ZHANG Yaping, LIU Jun

(Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006)

Abstract: As one of the focuses of China's national economy, the transformation and upgrading of the service industry plays an increasingly important role in optimizing the industrial structure and promoting economic growth. This paper takes 286 prefecture-level cities from 2013 to 2022 as research samples. Based on the “creative destruction” mechanism, this paper constructs a multi-sector Schumpeter endogenous growth model incorporating digital technology to analyze the effects and mechanisms of digital technology on the transformation and upgrading of the service industry. This paper finds that digital technology significantly promotes the transformation and upgrading of the service industry by enhancing the technology diffusion effect and the agglomeration effect of the service industry. Heterogeneity analysis shows that in regions with high digital innovation factors, high infrastructure, and high financial development levels, the promoting effect of digital technology is more significant. Further, using the dynamic spatial Durbin model, this paper finds that both digital technology and the transformation and upgrading of the service industry have significant spatial agglomeration characteristics, and digital technology has a spatial spillover effect on neighboring regions.

The contributions of this paper are as follows. Firstly, based on Schumpeter's endogenous growth theory, this paper constructs a multi-sector analysis framework including the spatial spillover effect of digital technology, revealing the intrinsic mechanism of digital technology driving the upgrading of the service industry and providing a new theoretical perspective for understanding the relationship between the two. Secondly, by introducing the dual effects of technology diffusion and service industry agglomeration, this paper clarifies the transmission path of digital technology promoting the upgrading of the service industry. Finally, the dynamic spatial Durbin model is employed to systematically investigate the spatio-temporal lag effects of the transformation and upgrading of the service industry, expanding the analytical dimensions.

In the context of the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy, the role of digital technology in promoting the transformation and upgrading of the service industry has become increasingly crucial. The policy implications of this paper are as follows: While various regions accelerate the development of digital technology and create a more favorable external environment, they should focus on strengthening the technology diffusion effect of digital technology and the clustering effect of the service industry, fully utilize the spatial spillover effect of digital technology, and promote the transformation and upgrading of the service industry. This not only helps enhance the overall competitiveness of the service industry but also reshapes the industrial form and economic pattern, and promotes high-quality economic development.

Keywords: digital technology; transformation and upgrading of the service industry; technology diffusion; service industry agglomeration; spatial agglomeration

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