海外供应网络地位对中国企业出口稳定性的影响研究

高晓彤¹，白雪洁¹，汪子豪²

（1.南开大学 经济与社会发展研究院，天津 300071；

2.招商银行 博士后科研工作站，广东 深圳 518040）

摘要：基于2006—2014年的中国海关数据库和全球双边贸易数据，可以考察经济冲击下海外供应网络地位对中国企业出口稳定性的影响。研究结果表明：海外供应网络地位较高的企业，危机时期发生出口中断和退出的概率较低。机制分析结果表明，海外供应网络地位越高，企业在危机时期越能够获取稳定的中间投入，进而保障生产活动的顺利进行和提升出口稳定性；并且当中间品的进口需求弹性较小、进口市场数量较少和国内替代程度较低时，企业会更加依赖海外供应网络对出口稳定性的提升效应。考虑供应关系特征的分析结果显示，供应关系的成熟度和连接强度越低、企业面临的中间品竞争程度越高时，企业越依赖海外供应网络对出口稳定性的促进作用。

关键词：海外供应网络；出口稳定性；经济冲击；供给稳定

作者简介：高晓彤（1995—），女，南开大学经济与社会发展研究院助理研究员，通信作者；白雪洁（1971—），女，南开大学经济与社会发展研究院教授；汪子豪（1995—），男，招商银行博士后。

基金项目：国家自然科学基金青年项目“风险防范视角下海外供应商网络对出口韧性的作用机制与策略选择”（72303117）；中国博士后科学基金面上项目“供应关系灵活性对企业出口韧性的影响研究：机理与实证”（2023M731812）；教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“双向直接投资赋能国内国际双循环：动力机制与实现路径研究”（22JJD790038）

引用格式：高晓彤,白雪洁,汪子豪.海外供应网络地位对中国企业出口稳定性的影响研究[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2025,27(4):83-99.

The Impact of Overseas Supply Network Positions on the Export Stability of Chinese Firms

GAO Xiaotong¹, BAI Xuejie¹, WANG Zihao²

(1. Nankai University, Tianjin 300071;

2. China Merchant Bank, Shenzhen 518040)

Abstract: International economic fluctuations have profoundly affected the stable and smooth flow of the supply chain, which has brought severe challenges to firms' export performance. This paper systematically examines the impact of firms' overseas supply network positions on their export stability under economic shocks, based on China's Customs database and global bilateral trade data from 2006 to 2014.

The key innovations of this paper are threefold. First, this paper identifies supply-side network characteristics as underexplored determinants of export stability, complementing demand-centric literature. Second, this paper develops a novel supply network centrality metric integrating supplier countries' global positions, firm-supplier linkage intensity, and input-output linkages. Third, this paper shifts focus from price-quality effects or technology spillovers to establish intermediate input stability as the key channel linking supply networks to export stability.

In terms of research methodology, this paper adopts the network analysis method, combining the China Customs database and the CEPII-BACI database, to construct an indicator of enterprises' overseas supply network. The indicator considers the positions of overseas supplier countries in the global supply network, the strength of the linkage between firms and the supplier countries, and the input-output relationship. Additionally, this paper defines export disruptions and exit behavior at the firm-product level using the 2008 economic shock as an examples. Subsequently, an empirical model is used to examine the impact of overseas supply networks on firms' export stability and make endogeneity analyses and robustness tests.

This paper finds that firms with higher supply network centrality exhibit significantly lower probabilities of export disruptions or exits during crises. Results withstand endogeneity checks and robustness tests. Mechanism analysis reveals dual reinforcement channels: Primarily, countries occupying central positions in global supply networks demonstrate stronger supply stability, exhibiting enhanced capacity to absorb production shocks during crises. Concurrently, firms importing intermediate goods from supply network hubs mitigate disruption risks and sustain production continuity and export performance. The stabilizing effect intensifies in cases of inelastic import demand for specialized inputs, concentrated sourcing markets with limited diversification potential, and weak domestic substitutability. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that firms exhibit greater reliance on overseas supply networks' export-stabilizing effects when operating under conditions of lower supply relationship maturity, weaker linkage strength, and heightened competition intensity in the intermediate goods market.

The implications are as follows. First, the overseas supply chains should be strengthened to enhance the stability of intermediate goods supply. Second, it is necessary to expand the diversity of the supply system to reduce the supply risk of a single source. Third, it is necessary to enhance the substitution ability of the domestic supply chain to reduce the over-dependence on overseas supply.

Keywords: overseas supply network; export stability; economic shocks; supply stability

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