中国预算管理制度改革：“十四五”回顾与“十五五”展望

马海涛，顾博航

（中央财经大学 中国财政发展协同创新中心，北京 102206）

摘要：十四五”时期，中国预算管理制度改革持续深化，预算运行规范性、透明度与执行刚性明显增强，为宏观调控和高质量发展提供了制度支撑。面向“十五五”，财政收支紧平衡常态化、基层“三保”（保基本民生、保工资、保运转）压力上行与债务风险约束趋紧叠加，外部不确定性与国内经济结构转型对预算统筹、支出结构优化与风险治理提出更高要求。“十五五”时期深化预算管理制度改革应坚持系统集成、协同高效：以中期财政规划和跨年度平衡为牵引做实资源统筹，以“能用、管用”为导向强化绩效结果刚性应用，以一体化建设推进规则嵌入与数据标准治理，提升执行约束与穿透式监管，并完善支出标准、预算评审与政府债务预算管理衔接机制，推动预算管理由制度框架持续完善转向制度建设与执行效能并重。

关键词：现代预算制度；预算管理制度改革；财政资源统筹；预算绩效管理；政府债务预算管理

作者简介：马海涛，中央财经大学中国财政发展协同创新中心教授、博士生导师；顾博航，中央财经大学中国财政发展协同创新中心博士研究生。

引用格式：马海涛，顾博航. 中国预算管理制度改革：“十四五”回顾与“十五五”展望[J]. 首都经济贸易大学学报，2026，28（4）：19-31.

China's Budget Management System Reform:Review of the 14th Five-Year Plan Period and Outlook for the 15th Five-Year Plan Period

MA Haitao, GU Bohang

(Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 102206)

Abstract: This paper reviews China's budget management system reform in the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period and sets out priorities for the 15th FYP period. In the 14th FYP period, reform did not merely add new rules; it pushed the modern budget management system from framework building to routine operation. Law-based budgeting and the hard rule of "budget before spending" were strengthened through final accounts, budget indicator accounting, budget review, and fiscal supervision. Budget coverage became more complete. Medium-term fiscal planning and cross-year budget balance improved the stability and foresight of annual budgets. Transfer payment reform strengthened basic public services and grassroots fiscal capacity. Budget performance management moved from single project appraisal to a full-process mechanism. Integrated budget management platforms embedded rules in online workflows, kept traceable records, and strengthened information disclosure, debt control, and penetrative supervision. Budget operation thus became more standard, open, disciplined, and risk-aware.

It argues that the 15th FYP period will place budget management system reform under tighter constraints. Tight fiscal balance may persist. Grassroots governments will face greater pressure to safeguard basic livelihoods, wage payments, and routine operations. External uncertainty and domestic structural change make revenue forecasts, spending priorities, and policy timing harder to coordinate. Reform should therefore focus on system integration and effective operation. First, fiscal resources should be better coordinated by making medium-term fiscal planning more binding. Second, budget performance management should become more effective by clarifying responsibilities, moving performance review forward, using evaluation results in budget arrangements, and managing projects over their life cycle. Third, integrated budget management should be deepened through unified data standards, master data governance, built-in control rules, and joint supervision based on the same data source. Fourth, expenditure standards and budget review should be tied to project entry, zero-based budgeting, audit opinions, and performance results. Fifth, government debt budget management should cover borrowing, use, repayment, disclosure, and accountability.

These measures should not be treated as separate tasks but form an integrated chain running through policy design, budget arrangement, fund use, supervision, and evaluation. Such a chain can help the budget management system send clear signals, guide departments to plan earlier, reduce inefficient and ineffective spending, and keep fiscal risks visible and controllable before they accumulate and spread. Overall, budget management in the 15th FYP period should shift from "having a framework" to "achieving effective operation", aiming to improve fiscal resource allocation and the use of public funds through clear rules, reliable data, and enforceable responsibilities.

Keywords: modern budget system; budget management system reform; fiscal resource coordination; budget performance management; government debt budget management

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