非农就业能促进耕地保护吗？

——基于外包服务与土地流转视角

倪国华^a，张立^a，王赛男^b

（北京工商大学 a.经济学院；b.马克思主义学院，北京 100048）

摘要：在非农就业持续扩张背景下，如何实现耕地保护成为推动农业现代化发展的重要议题之一。本文基于中国土地经济调查数据，系统考察了非农就业对耕地保护的影响及其作用机制。研究表明：非农就业促进了耕地保护。机制分析发现，非农就业主要通过外包服务和土地流转两条路径推动耕地保护。进一步细分外包服务类型发现, 非农就业促进了犁地外包服务和收获外包服务。异质性分析发现，非农就业对耕地保护的促进效应在异地非农就业、经营规模大、承包地道路可达性好的条件下更明显。本文从农业生产方式与要素配置结构调整的视角，拓展了非农就业与耕地保护的研究，为政府制定更高效的耕地保护政策和农业发展道路提供了理论参考与对策建议。

基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“耕地数量、质量、生态‘三位一体’保护制度体系构建及政策研究”（24&ZD101）；国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“中国现代化进程中粮食市场各利益主体价格风险承受能力的政策模拟研究”（72403016）

关键词：非农就业；耕地保护；外包服务；土地流转；粮食安全

作者简介：倪国华，北京工商大学经济学院教授、博士生导师；张立，北京工商大学经济学院博士研究生；王赛男，北京工商大学马克思主义学院副教授，通信作者。

引用格式：倪国华,张立,王赛男.非农就业能促进耕地保护吗?——基于外包服务与土地流转视角[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2026,28(3):15-27.

Does Non-agricultural Employment Promote Farmland Protection?

Evidence from the Perspectives of Outsourcing Services and Land Transfer

NI Guohua, ZHANG Li, WANG Sainan

(Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048)

Abstract: From the perspective of factor endowments, the significance of farmland lies in its scarcity as a factor of agricultural production in China, whereas agricultural labor is relatively abundant compared to developed countries. The expansion of non-agricultural employment can reshape the rural labor allocation and agricultural production modes, safeguarding the interests of micro-level entities like farmers by increasing value-added per labor, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of cultivated land conservation. This paper analyzes the impact of non-agricultural employment on the protection of contracted farmland by farmers, based on China's mixed cross-sectional data from the China Land Economic Survey, while delving into the underlying mechanisms and heterogeneous effects.

The results indicate that non-agricultural employment significantly promotes farmland protection. Mechanism analysis reveals that non-agricultural employment primarily drives farmland protection through two pathways: agricultural outsourcing services and land transfers. In particular, the outsourcing of plowing and harvesting, where mechanization dependency is high, shows more pronounced effects. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the positive effect of non-agricultural employment on farmland protection is more significant under conditions of larger operational scales and better road accessibility to contracted land, with off-site non-agricultural employment exhibiting even stronger farmland protection benefits.

Targeted policy implications are proposed: shifting agricultural factor allocation from household-based manual distribution to socialized service production modes; improving land transfer systems to enable non-agricultural employment and cross-regional resource allocation; and transitioning from administrative control toward incentive-compatible governance, thereby establishing a long-term, stable farmland protection system.

The paper systematically examines the impact of non-agricultural employment on farmland protection and explores the underlying mechanisms based on the data from the China Land Economic Survey. The potential contributions are as follows. First, from the perspective of a “trinity” approach encompassing farmland quantity, quality, and ecology, it provides empirical evidence on how non-agricultural employment affects farmland quality and ecological conservation. Second, by integrating socialized services and land transfer into a unified analytical framework of non-agricultural employment and farmland protection, it thoroughly delineates the intrinsic mechanisms through which non-agricultural employment affects farmland protection via outsourcing services and land transfer. Third, it further analyzes the differential effects of these mechanisms under varying conditions, uncovering the efficacy of non-agricultural employment on farmland protection across different spatial employment distances, operational scales, and underlying endowments, thereby offering targeted references for farmland protection strategies.

Keywords: non-agricultural employment; farmland protection; outsourcing services; land transfer; food security

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